GI
GMS Inc. (GMS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 FY2025 delivered $1.47B net sales (+3.5% YoY) with diluted EPS of $1.35 (vs. $1.97 YoY) as gross margin contracted 90 bps to 31.4% on softer end-market demand, steel deflation, unrealized vendor incentives, and hurricane-related disruptions; Adjusted EBITDA was $152.2M (10.3% margin) .
- Steel price deflation (
$18M sales headwind) and Hurricanes Helene/Milton ($20M sales and ~$6M adjusted EBITDA headwind) were notable drags; management cited pockets of strength in data centers, education, healthcare, and CHIPS/IRA-backed projects . - Liquidity remained solid: cash $83.9M, available revolver liquidity $458.6M; net debt leverage increased to 2.3x on M&A and buybacks; Board renewed share repurchase authorization up to $250M (replacing the prior program) .
- Q3 FY2025 outlook: gross margin 31.5%–31.7% and Adjusted EBITDA $113–$118M; expected mix: Wallboard organic volumes down mid- to high-single-digits (price/mix up slightly), Ceilings volumes up high-single-digits, Steel volumes down low-single-digits with price/mix down low- to mid-single-digits, Complementary up ~10% .
- Wall Street consensus from S&P Global for Q2 FY2025 was not available for GMS (mapping unavailable); therefore, beats/misses vs. estimates cannot be assessed (S&P Global consensus unavailable).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Pricing resilience and sequential progress: like-for-like Wallboard prices improved sequentially; average realized Wallboard price reached $481 per 1,000 sq. ft.; Ceilings price/mix up 5.5% with organic sales +1.6% YoY .
- Strategic momentum: R.S. Elliott acquisition (EIFS/stucco in FL), one new greenfield in Q2 and two more post-quarter; share repurchase program renewed to $250M, signaling confidence .
- Cost actions tracking better: $30M annualized cost savings program (up from $25M initially), with roughly half run-rate captured in Q2; expected full capture by Q3 .
-
What Went Wrong
- End-market softness and weather: multi-family and commercial weakened; hurricanes closed >40 locations at least one day and reduced Q2 sales by ~$20M and adjusted EBITDA by ~$6M .
- Steel deflation and incentives: YoY steel deflation reduced sales by ~$18M; unrealized manufacturer purchasing incentives and higher accident claims pressured margins/SG&A leverage .
- Margin compression: gross margin fell 90 bps YoY to 31.4% on price/cost dynamics in Wallboard, mix shift to single-family, unrealized incentives, and one-time operational impacts; adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 10.3% from 11.8% .
Financial Results
Headline metrics (YoY and sequential trend)
Product category net sales (YoY)
Selected KPIs and capital allocation
Notes: YoY and sequential comparisons reflect underlying drivers including $~18M steel deflation impact to sales and $~20M hurricane impact to sales; hurricanes also reduced adjusted EBITDA by ~$6M .
Guidance Changes
No explicit revenue, OpEx, OI&E, dividend guidance was provided.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Prices remained resilient across our major product lines… Partially offsetting this growth were soft multi-family activity and softening commercial shipments. Hurricane-related slowdowns also significantly impacted one of our largest and fastest-growing regions…” — John C. Turner, Jr., CEO .
- “Gross margin for the quarter was 31.4%, up 20 bps sequentially… down 90 bps from a year ago… attributable to a mix shift… combined with price and cost dynamics in Wallboard…” — CEO .
- “We estimate that Hurricane Helene and Milton negatively impacted our net sales… by approximately $20 million and adjusted EBITDA by approximately $6 million…” — CEO .
- “Our team worked diligently… cost savings… now believe will achieve closer to $30 million of annualized cost savings… roughly half… in the second quarter and expect the remainder… in the third quarter.” — CEO .
- “Following… Kamco, Yvon and R.S. Elliott… our net debt leverage was 2.3x… Free cash flow of $101.5 million… Board… renewed our share repurchase program… up to $250 million.” — CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Wallboard price-cost: management sees about “60 bps of gross margin with still price cost attributed to Wallboard,” with sequential improvement but constrained by weak demand and mix; any sustained volume growth would aid further price realization .
- Steel and tariffs: steel prices “bouncing along the bottom”; tariffs would likely be supportive for distribution; GMS does not source framing internationally; broader rolled steel market affects indirectly .
- End-market outlook: commercial and multi-family remain challenged until rate/lending backdrop improves; single-family roughly flat near term; data centers/healthcare/education better segments .
- SG&A leverage: nearing neutral in next quarter with improvements expected beyond, contingent on volumes; cost savings north of $30M provide cushion through the bottoming phase .
- Ceilings trajectory and M&A: Ceilings holding up better given project mix (data centers, healthcare, education) and strength of Kamco franchise; M&A pipeline remains active with leverage targeted around 1.5–2.5x and flexibility to balance buybacks and deals .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus for Q2 FY2025 EPS and revenue was not retrievable due to a mapping issue for GMS; as such, we cannot provide a beats/misses assessment for this quarter (S&P Global consensus unavailable).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q2 showed resilient pricing but weaker volumes and mix; transitory weather and incentive shortfalls compounded macro softness, compressing margins and EPS YoY .
- The narrative shifts toward stabilization: steel appears to be bottoming sequentially; like-for-like Wallboard pricing improved; Ceilings remains a relative outperformer on favorable project mix .
- Q3 guide implies seasonal/soft-quarter trough dynamics (GM ~31.5%–31.7%, Adj. EBITDA $113–$118M), setting up 2H CY2025 recovery optionality if rates ease and housing sentiment improves; monitor cadence of Wallboard price actions in 1H CY2025 .
- Balance sheet/liquidity remain sound to fund consolidation and buybacks; renewed $250M authorization is an incremental floor under shares during cyclical softness .
- Structural cost actions (now ~$30M run-rate, with further actions added in Q3) should support margins through the downcycle and provide operating leverage on recovery .
- Watch data center/healthcare/education exposure and CHIPS/IRA-backed projects as offsets to weaker office/multi-family; hurricane impacts should fade but highlight regional exposure risks .
- Without S&P consensus, trading setups hinge more on reading-through Q3 margin/EBITDA cadence and early signs of rate-driven single-family volume uplift and vendor pricing dynamics (rebates/incentives) .
References:
- Q2 FY2025 8-K and press release: **[1600438_0001104659-24-125727_tm2430203d1_8k.htm:0]**, **[1600438_6ed5b06d0a47459ebb5dd503cb072d34_0]**
- Q2 FY2025 earnings call transcript: **[1600438_GMS_3410947_0]**
- Q1 FY2025 press release: **[1600438_fbae119d6b5c4469a66c59e1fecaaeca_0]**
- Q3 FY2025 press release (trend): **[1600438_1e709c22cf72471884df8a871d1b65be_0]**
- Q4 FY2024 press release (trend): **[1600438_06f45daf645241358966ff8c9a461b71_0]**